Türkiye is taking part in the KOALICJA 26.2 military exercise, scheduled to be held in Poland from November 9 to 22, through the Maritime Component Command of the Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine, based in Istanbul.
The exercise involves around 2,800 military personnel from 11 countries, including Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye and the UK.
The timing is also noticeable. The exercise began just one day before Russia, the US and Ukraine met for peace talks in Abu Dhabi on November 20.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova commented on the exercise, saying that Western countries “refuse to take Russia’s legitimate security concerns into account and continue to escalate tensions.” Zakharova also stated that Britain and France, by deploying a multinational force to Ukraine, aim to “establish a foothold for confronting Russia.”
UWI author, historian and political scientist Associate Professor Mehmet Perinçek evaluated the KOALICJA 26.2 military exercise and Türkiye’s participation.
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Prolonging the war
The countries organizing this military exercise are the very countries that have been fueling the war in Ukraine, pushing for its continuation and pursuing hostile policies toward Russia, and thus toward Eurasia. This exercise will only serve to prolong the war in Ukraine.
What does prolonging the war mean? It means keeping the Black Sea closed to Turkish merchant vessels, leaving security in the Black Sea under constant threat, weakening Türkiye’s trade with Russia to the point bordering on a complete halt, and damaging Turkish-Russian relations more broadly.
Ukraine is in an extremely difficult position. Russia has put Ukraine under enormous pressure on the battlefield, and Ukraine has come to realize that recovering the territories it has lost is no longer possible. Trump has made certain moves aimed at ending the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is facing serious infrastructure problems, particularly with heating and electricity supplies. These problems can fuel public discontent and trigger protests. There have also been demonstrations against the torture facilities run by the Azov battalions.
It is precisely at such a moment, when Ukraine is in a desperate situation and some hope has emerged for ending the war, that the warmongers in Europe are having this exercise to demonstrate their determination to keep the war going.
From “policy of balance” to siding with Ukraine
Türkiye is now becoming part of this provocation. The government’s policy has transformed from a “policy of balance” or “neutrality” into a policy of siding with Ukraine and those who are fueling the war.
This policy is detrimental to Türkiye itself. Take trade relations between Türkiye and Russia. Trade has almost ground to a halt because of the closure of the Black Sea. Turkish producers can no longer ship their products to Russia. Turkish ships have become targets of Ukrainian attacks after setting sail. Yet the Turkish Foreign Ministry has not uttered even a word of protest.
And now, by joining a military exercise that supports Ukraine, the Erdoğan government is creating the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russia. This can have consequences beyond the Black Sea and pave the way for Türkiye’s isolation in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Türkiye’s misguided position
Considering the overall circumstances in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, the misguided position of Türkiye is obvious: The countries fueling the war in the Black Sea (Germany, Britain, France and others) are the very countries participating alongside Türkiye in this exercise. Yet these same countries are part of the anti-Türkiye front in the Eastern Mediterranean. In other words, the countries that stand against Russia in the Black Sea also stand against Türkiye on the Cyprus issue and in the Eastern Mediterranean. By drawing Türkiye into this exercise, these countries manage two things at once: positioning Türkiye in their plans and driving a wedge between Türkiye and Russia, further isolating Türkiye in the Eastern Mediterranean.
If Germany, Britain and France are truly Türkiye’s “friends”, then let them conduct military exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean against Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus to defend the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the Blue Homeland! Far from standing by Türkiye or even remaining neutral, these countries would side against Türkiye in the event of any conflict or crisis. In fact, they are already acting together against Türkiye in Cyprus and building up their military presence there.
For this reason, Türkiye’s participation in this exercise should not be viewed merely as joining an anti-Russian military exercise or as a development that contributes to the closure of the Black Sea to Turkish shipping and trade. It should also be seen as an exercise that will directly affect the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean to Türkiye’s detriment.
“The Turkish government is now on the wrong side everywhere”
The Turkish government is now on the wrong side of every regional issue and conflict. On Iran and Yemen, it is following Trump’s lead in the framework of the Mecca Agreement. On Ukraine, it is siding with the aggressive policies of Britain, Germany and France.
Another important dimension is the impact of Türkiye’s economic situation plays on these developments. Everyone, the US, Israel and the warmongers in Europe, has recognized the vulnerability of the Turkish economy. They see that the government has no strategy for overcoming the economic hardship and that it has been in trouble domestically because of the fund scandal. They want to use it to advance their own plans by exploiting these vulnerabilities.
Trump sees the weakness of the Turkish economy and wants to use Türkiye against Iran through the Mecca Agreement. (Of course, Trump’s own political future is anyone’s guess, but that’s another matter.) The British see the same weakness and want to exploit it to use the Turkish government in the Ukraine issue. Everyone approaches this government with the same mentality: “Whatever we can get out of it is a gain.”
This situation is unacceptable to us. The government’s disastrous management and its policies dragging the country into dangerous adventures, call for its immediate removal from power. What Türkiye needs instead is a national government that will carry out a production revolution, and establish international alliances, above all with Iran, Russia and China, as well as with the Turkic and Islamic worlds, to protect the country’s territorial integrity, energy security and economic development.